Most tsunamis are caused by tectonic shifts under the sea. Plates of the Earth’s crust get stuck and then snap. On land, we experience this as a large earthquake. At sea, it sends giant waves radiating outward, and when they hit land, the impact can be massive. The change to the Earth’s surface is lasting, at least until the next one. It’s an apt metaphor for what happened on November 3. But how long will it be until the next one, when unresolved pressure snaps the crust again and wipes away the rebuilding efforts of the previous wave? In the Earth’s crust, that is decided by physics. In Washington, it will be decided by politics.
In an unexpected landslide, control at both ends of the Capitol moved decisively from Republicans to Democrats. How lasting these changes are and whether the rebuilding efforts of both parties prove durable is yet to be seen. But what we do know is that affordability will be a major determinant of what comes next. The good news for the American people is that politics don’t have to be a zero-sum game. There is ample room for Democrats and Republicans to work together on bipartisan affordability legislation. The question is whether they will choose to do it. If they fail, voters will not listen to excuses. Incumbent members of Congress will face their wrath at the ballot box, in primaries as well as general elections. Performative politics is a recipe for retirement.
In housing, this means aggressive oversight hearings will have to take a back seat to substantive efforts to find common ground. Congressional oversight is an essential constitutional responsibility. Investigations into corruption, conflicts of interest, misuse of public funds, and administrative misconduct should be pursued when the evidence warrants. A protracted battle over executive privilege that is unlikely to prevail in the Supreme Court will only alienate voters. Successful investigations are often tedious and boring in the beginning. Oversight committees should commit to that hard work, follow the money, and build a case where one exists. There is plenty of time for performative politics in an election year. It’s hard to reach accord with someone when you are yelling at them.
Listening and communicating are much more effective, as the leaders of the House and Senate found last year when they passed the historic 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. The leaders of this effort will all be returning to Congress, albeit in different seats at their committees. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) weren’t on the ballot, and House Financial Services Committee Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and Housing and Insurance Subcommittee Ranking Member Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) were easily reelected. To appreciate the enormous political impact of this bipartisan legislation, one need look no further than House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-Ark.) and Housing and Insurance Subcommittee Chairman Mike Flood (R-Neb.). Hill won by fewer than 2 percentage points and Flood by about 4. Both had a concrete achievement on housing supply and affordability to run on, and in races that close, that matters.
Working together on truly bipartisan priorities, we can fund ROAD, enact bipartisan housing-related tax legislation, and fully implement the work Congress has already done. Implementation efforts are well underway. NHC has gathered approximately 50 housing organizations across the political spectrum to implement ROAD. Co-chaired by Stockton Williams of the National Council of State Housing Agencies and Marisa Calderon of Prosperity Now, this effort is leveraging practitioner experience and agentic artificial intelligence to help the Trump administration create a durable regulatory framework that delivers results as quickly as possible.
We also have a lot of educating and relationship building to do. At least 18 of the cosponsors of the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act in the House and one in the Senate are not returning to Congress. That’s nearly a quarter of the total cosponsors of the bill in both chambers. For the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act, at least 48 of the cosponsors in the House and seven in the Senate are not returning to Congress, or at least 26% of the cosponsors. We need to educate new members, encourage returning cosponsors to quickly reintroduce the bills, and gain support for placing this legislation at the top of committee agendas for early action.
Tax legislation offers opportunities to mobilize private capital and improve housing market functioning. There are several bipartisan bills that are ready for reintroduction. These include:
Neighborhood Homes Investment Act. Creates a tax credit to cover the gap between what it costs to build or rehabilitate owner-occupied homes in distressed neighborhoods and what they can sell for.
More Homes on the Market Act. Doubles the capital gains exclusion on the sale of a principal residence from $250,000 to $500,000 for single filers and from $500,000 to $1,000,000 for married couples filing jointly, while also indexing these thresholds to inflation moving forward.
First-Time Homebuyer Affordability Act. Excludes qualifying mortgage revenue bonds from the private activity bond volume cap to expand financing capacity for eligible homeownership programs.
Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act. Builds on the Housing Credit expansion enacted last year (a permanent 12% allocation increase and a 25% bond-financing test) with a further allocation increase, better targeting to rural, Native American, and extremely low-income communities, and a bar on state scoring that rewards local officials’ support or penalizes their opposition. If enacted, it could create more than a million new units of affordable rental housing.
In the Appropriations Committees, we need to deliver robust funding for programs that have been improved in ROAD, like HOME and CDBG. Housing preservation is also a high priority. You can’t fill a bucket with a hole in it. Neither can you deliver on the potential of a new program if it doesn’t have the fuel to make it run.
We’ve accomplished a lot this year. A lot more than most of us could have imagined two years ago. 2027 can be just as impactful. We are already on a roll. We just need to maintain it. And as an old friend once told me, the way you stay on a roll is the same way you got on it. It’s been a good week for housing. The best may be yet to come.