In just two days, voters will go to the polls to choose between fundamentally different directions for the United States. The stakes are high on many levels. Like the country itself, NHC’s members have a wide range of views on the role of government and the candidates that are advocating those disparate directions. This political diversity is our strength, bound together by our shared vision of an America where everyone is able to live in a quality, affordable home in a thriving community. I often say “at NHC, housing is our party.” So I have to ask, will housing win the 2024 election? The answer is not entirely clear.
I agree that the Project 2025 agenda would gut our fair and affordable housing ecosystem. NHC will vehemently oppose most of its recommendations. We have 50 years of victories against the most egregious recommendations of Project 2025. Former president Trump has disavowed the plan, but I’m not naive. Many of its authors are likely to have leading roles in his administration, should he win. As a result, we may face an uphill battle to preserve many of our most important affordable housing programs. Yet there also may be genuine opportunities to improve, not gut, many regulations that have inhibited affordable housing development, like manufactured housing, broader mortgage lending, and affordable housing development.
A much more significant and immediate risk to the housing economy is former president Trump’s commitment to initiate a major trade war by instituting across the board tariffs. The Biden administration’s trade and Buy America policies have already hurt housing, significantly increasing the cost of lumber and other commodities. The Trump plan would make those tariffs look quaint by comparison.
According to the right-of-center Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIEE), “these steps would increase the distortions and burdens created by the rounds of tariffs levied during the first Trump administration (and sustained during the Biden administration), while inflicting massive collateral damage on the US economy.” The report went on to say that the proposals would amount to “sharply regressive tax policy changes, shifting tax burdens away from the well-off and toward lower-income members of society while harming U.S. workers and industries, inviting retaliation from trading partners, and worsening international relations.” Another study by PIEE economists found that “Trump’s ‘America first’ proposal for mass deportations would raise prices, cost jobs, and harm the US economy.”
The Harris Walz housing agenda is highly aligned with NHC’s policy priorities, as I have said before in MarketWatch, USA Today, and Fast Company. But we also must acknowledge that in an era of divided government, few of our priorities have been successfully enacted in the past eight years led by either party. Housers have a box full of participant ribbons and few victories. Good ideas without committed political will and success cannot be tolerated.
In governing, policy is personnel and who is appointed will largely determine what gets done in the housing space. In the Biden administration, National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard, Department of Housing and Urban Development Deputy Secretary and Agency Head Adrianne Todman, and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Sandra Thompson have been highly impactful and effective housing leaders. Regulatory policy has too often been more problematic. We need regulators who are guard dogs, not lap dogs or attack dogs. Overzealous regulation, like a recent decision by the Department of Justice and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to sue Rocket Mortgage in an appraisal bias case involving a single loan, despite the fact that mortgage lenders are not allowed to question an appraisal report when underwriting a mortgage, is only the most recent example. During the Trump administration, a highly successful program that contributes to affordable housing construction was allowed to expire due to a mistaken belief that it disproportionally helped “blue states.” The Biden administration restored the program in 2021 and indefinitely extended it earlier this year.
NHC’s focus is on tangible, impactful, and achievable solutions to our affordable housing needs, now a broadly recognized crisis. Our Policy and Research Committee will be meeting in a few weeks to assemble our policy agenda for 2025-2026. At the top of that list will be enactment of the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act and the Neighborhood Homes Investment Act. The good news is both bills have strong bipartisan support in Congress. We will also seek regulatory reform to ensure that existing programs are effective and regulatory enforcement does not have a chilling impact on affordable mortgage lending and investment. Defending fair housing regulations that are an important part of our commitment to expanding homeownership for all Americans will be foundational.
Regardless of who wins, NHC will be a leading voice for bipartisan, tangible, impactful, and achievable policies that expand homeownership and make renting more affordable. We hope you will join us in that effort, both as a member of NHC, and as a participant at our Solutions for Affordable Housing convening at the National Press Club on December 4. I look forward to seeing you soon.